The Pahalgam Tragedy: A Brutal Attack with Far-Reaching Consequences

By Shehla Bukhari

The serene Baisaran meadows, often called the “mini-Switzerland” of Kashmir, turned into a site of unimaginable horror recently when terrorists gunned down 26 innocent tourists which also included a Nepali citizen. The attack has shaken not only India but the entire world.

Survivors recount chilling details. Before opening fire, the attackers allegedly demanded the victims to recite Islamic verses or, in many cases, forced them to undress partially to check for circumcision—clearly identifying their religion before executing them. Non-Muslim male tourists were separated and mercilessly shot in front of their families, with the killers instructing the survivors to “tell Modi.”, referencing to Indian Prime Minister.

A shadowy militant group, “The Resistance Force” (TRF)—widely known as a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a UN-designated terrorist organization—initially claimed responsibility for the massacre via their X (formerly Twitter) account. Indian authorities have since released sketches of four men believed to be behind the attack: Ali Bhai alias Talha, Asif Fauji, Adil Hussain Thoker, and Ahsan. Two of them, Ali Bhai and Asif Fauji, are reportedly Pakistani nationals who infiltrated into Indian territory.

This brutal attack is the deadliest targeting tourists in Kashmir since 2000. Historically, militant groups avoided harming tourists, understanding the sector’s critical role in Kashmir’s economy. However, this time, the very lifeline of Kashmir’s economy was deliberately struck.

The question remains: why now?

Tourism in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian administered Kashmir has witnessed an extraordinary boom in the past few years. From 16 million tourists in 2018, the number surged to over 23 million in 2024. The economic contribution of tourism to the region’s GDP—estimated between $223 million and $255 million annually—has been a cornerstone of post-COVID recovery. On the other side, Pakistan administered Kashmir is crumbling under daily protests over basic necessities like food, electricity, and infrastructure. This glaring contrast has not gone unnoticed.

The attack seems aimed at sabotaging Kashmir’s growing stability and prosperity under Indian governance, disrupting the thriving tourism sector.

Beyond the immediate tragedy, the Pahalgam attack fits a broader pattern. The goal appears to be to instill fear, destabilize the region, and provoke a reaction while maintaining plausible deniability. The timing is critical too, coinciding with deep internal turmoil in Pakistan.

Today, Pakistan faces serious existential challenges. The economy is paralyzed, political leadership is directionless, and separatist movements in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are gaining ground. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s own policies of nurturing terror groups are backfiring, with organizations like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISKP launching attacks inside Pakistan itself.

Faced with a domestic meltdown, the military establishment, as in the past, appears to have turned to Kashmir to divert attention and reignite nationalist fervor. Historically, every bout of civil-military tension in Pakistan has coincided with heightened activity in Kashmir.

Compounding matters is the role of General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s current army chief. Known for his hardline views, Munir recently reaffirmed Pakistan’s outdated commitment to the “two-nation theory,” calling Kashmir Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and urging the indoctrination of future generations with Islamist ideology. His rhetoric mirrors extremist narratives and suggests a strategic shift back to militant adventurism.

This ideological posturing is not limited to speeches. Earlier this year, a conference in Rawalakot organized by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed featured leaders from Hamas tying Kashmir’s “struggle” to the Palestinian cause, attempting to internationalize and radicalize the issue. One of the speakers stressed on the need to have Hamas style October 7 attacks in India.

Pakistan has rolled back on counterterrorism regulations after being removed from the FATF grey list in 2022. Looser controls on madrassas and financial flows have given terror outfits new lifelines, allowing radicalization efforts to flourish with little oversight.

Pakistan’s response was predictable. Islamabad promptly labeled the attack a “false flag operation” allegedly orchestrated by India itself. This is completely devoid of any sense as why would Indian government, which has been projecting normalcy in Kashmir and aggressively promoting tourism there, would do anything that would completely jeopardise this. There is no elections also close by. Hence this labelling cannot fly. 

It is interesting to note that TRF which claimed responsibility without hesitation, later, under apparent pressure, backtracked, claiming their social media account had been “hacked.”. They also claimed in their statement that this is a ‘false flag’ operation, matching with Pakistan’s official position. This abrupt reversal only underscored TRF’s puppet-like relationship with Pakistan’s establishment.

This attack has triggered an unprecedented reaction within India’s Kashmir. For the first time, mass protests erupted against terrorism, with locals waving Indian flags and traders voluntarily shutting down markets in solidarity with the victims. 

Indian government has taken a slew of retaliatory measures which included cancellation of all visas issued to Pakistan nationals, reducing the personnel in the Pakistan Embassy in New Delhi, closing of border and keeping the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. Pakistan on its count has announced similar measures and also added closing of its airspace for Indian -commercial carriers. It is anticipated that India could take military action at-least on a smaller scale against the terror infrastructure inside Pakistan territory in the coming days. However with both countries being nuclear powers, the possibility of all out war between both sides is remote.

Shehla Bukhari – is a researcher in the history of Kashmir at the University of Kashmir. 

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